28-01-2011, 11:43 AM
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CMAQ Presentation
Overview
Greenhouse effect
Historic carbon emissions / CO2 rise
Forcing models / temperature predictions
Effect of a warming earth (1 degree F)
Peak oil / Hubbert’s peak
Future and current energy challenges
Energy equity – the road ahead
Carbon Emissions and CO2
Carbon burned => CO2
Linear from 1850 to 2000
- ppm CO2 =2.55 e10-4 *M tons C + 297 ppm (r2*100=99%)
~ 50% of carbon goes into atmospheric CO2
33% into the oceans
Trend is constant over 150 years – is this how the biosphere will react over the next 150 years?
Consequences of Warming
Thinning of polar ice caps
Thawing permafrost / release of methane
Slowing of the thermohaline cycle
Rising sea level, perhaps quickly
Extreme weather events
Extended regions of drought
Extremes of temperature / duration
Extremes of storms and hurricanes
The Melting North Pole
The North Pole is thinning in area ~10% per decade,
and thinning in thickness ~1 meter per decade. At these
rates, it may be an open sea as early as 2030 – 2050.
Energy Equity
Burning oil is burning money!
Build an energy infrastructure with equity
Solar energy is primary, not alternative!
$25 billion economy for ‘million solar roofs’
Every MW of solar energy creates 24 jobs in manufacturing, and 8 for local installers
Built in America, by Americans, for America, what could be more economic?
Summary
Greenhouse effect – carbon cycle
Forcing models – temperature lag
Effect of warming just one degree
Peak oil – declining energy production
Energy Equity – and the road ahead
Our single biggest challenge
Our single biggest opportunity
