10-04-2010, 09:43 PM
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POWER SCENARIO OF INDIA
Presented In
NTPC - ANTA
The Indian economy uses a variety of energy sources, both commercial and non-commercial. Fuel wood,
animal waste and agricultural residue are the traditional or `non-commercial' sources of energy that
continue to meet the bulk of the rural energy requirements even today. However, the share of these
fuels in the primary energy supply has declined from over 70% in the early 50's to a little over 30%
as of today.The traditional fuels are gradually getting replaced by the "commercial fuels" such as
coal, lignite, petroleum products, natural gas and electricity.
As the electricity is one of the most important input in the Industrial Sector, the development of
the nation is generally compared by the per capita consumption of electricity. In the developing
countries, the indicator can not be related directly with the average development of the nation.
The use of Electricity is basically done on following accounts : 1) Industrial (2) Commercial &
Residential lighting (3) Agriculture and Irrigation. In developing countries, 30% dwellings are yet
to be provided with electricity supply.
Whereas, in the developed foreign countries, the automation of industries is mainly responsible for
higher consumption of Electrical power. The use of domestic electrical equipment is also
comparatively very high in developed countries.
Harnessed energy has become a symbol of growth and instrument for development. Electric power
particularly the hydro is among the cleanest and renewable energy input for economic activity,
domestic and civic conveniences, climate control, communication and technology. The Ministry of
Power has set on objective of providing "Power for all by 2012". This will entail electrification of
all villages by 2007 and of all households by 2012.
As you are kindly aware, electricity is one of the key infrastructure elements for the economic
growth of the country. India since independence have made big strides in the power sector but with
per capita consumption of around 600 Kwh per year, we are amongst lowest rungs of the countries in
this vital indicator of economic and social development and power cuts are still resorted to even in
metro cities what to talk of rural areas. Indian economy, therefore, desperately needs a better
functioning power sector which can meet the market demand for quality power at a globally competent
rate.
The infrastructure would need the availability of assured and quality power at affordable price
through reliable and adequate generation, transmission and distribution facilities.
Power generation in India began more than a century ago in 1898 when the first hydro power unit was
set up at Darjeeling. When India achieved freedom in 1947, the country had an installed capacity of
1,360 MW.
The present installed (conventional fuel) generating capacity in the country is 1,18,780 MW. The
share of hydro with 32,370 MW capacity is about 27%. Thermal accounts for maximum share of 70% with
83,100 MW. It comprises of 63,374 MW from coal, Multi Fuel 1744 MW Lignite Based 3455 MW and 13451.9
MW from Gas and liquid fuel and 1,075.1 MW from Diesel. The share of Nuclear is about 2.7% with 3310
MW. The attainment is significant. However what we achieved in over 50 years will need to be
attained now in nearly 10 years.
The present annual energy requirement in 2002-03 was 5,45,674 MU, of which only 4,97,589 MU were
available, leaving a shortfall of 8.8%. While the peaking requirement was 81,492 MW in 2002-03, a
peak of 71,547 MW only could be met, leaving a shortage of 12.2%.
The 16th Electric Power Survey (EPS) carried out by the Central Electricity Authority has projected
a peak demand of 1,15,705 MW and an energy requirement of 7,19,097 MU by the end of 10th Plan while
the requirement by the end of 11th Plan has been projected as 9,75,222 MU and 1,57,107 MW
respectively.
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY REQUIREMENT
Accordingly at the end of the 10th Plan, an additional capacity of 55,158 MW is needed. However it
is likely that a capacity addition of 41,110 MW would only be feasible during the period keeping in
view the financial level of the power sector and preparedness of projects. The effort is to close
the deficit by the end of the 11th Plan to ensure "Power for all by 2012".
HYDRO / THERMAL MIX
The Indian power system requirement had been assessed to need a hydro power and
thermal / nuclear power mix in the ratio of 40.60 for flexibility in system operation depending on
typical load pattern. The present ratio is 25:75 which needs to be corrected immediately to meet
peak load requirements as well as system and frequency stability
HYDRO CAPACITY ADDITION
The estimated hydro potential in the country is 1,50,000 MW (corresponding to 84,044 MW at 60% load
factor) out of which only 26,910 MW amounting to 18% of the total potential has been harnessed.
While 14,393 MW hydro capacity is planned to be added in 10th Plan, action has been taken to ensure
that more than 20,000 MW of hydro capacity is added during the 11th Plan period.
Energy Scenario up to the Year 2020
The population of the country, which is likely to cross the 970x106 mark by the end of 1998, may
exceed 1315x106 by the end of the year 2019-20. Based on the present trends available in the rate of
urbanization, the share of urban population is projected to increase from 25.38% in 1990-91 to 43%
in the year 2020. The growth in GDP and its structural changes will have an effect on the demand for
energy and the energy supply mix in future. The GDP, which grew at a rate of 3.5% on an average up
to the 70's, has averaged more than 5.6% per annum growth in the 80's.
The GDP grew at the rate of over 6% per annum during the Seventh Five Year Plan period as against a
target of 5% per annum. The Eighth Plan had set a target of 5.6% per annum growth in GDP and the
likely achievement is projected to exceed well over 6% per annum. It is assumed in the present paper
that these trends in GDP growth are likely to continue in future as well. The high rate of economic
growth is likely to be accompanied by an increasing per capita income and changes in life styles.
This will have an effect on the energy demand as well. In view of the rising awareness in regard to
the environmental protection and conservation, the future growth in energy sector must consider such
concerns in order to develop in a manner which is environmentally benign. The key issues facing a
developing country like India which have energy implications are, therefore, rising population, need
for economic growth, access to adequate commercial energy supplies and the financial resources
needed to achieve this, rational energy pricing regime, improvements in energy efficiency of both
the energy supply and consumption, technological up gradation, a matching R&D base and environmental
protection.
