Population Projections For India and States 2001-2027
#1

Presented by:
Prateek Jauhari

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Review of Literature
The population of any country is a state of flux both in terms of its size and characteristics. The periodic census enumeration obtains data on the size and composition of the population at the time census was taken. But for many purposes, it is important to know the number and characteristics of the people at different dates between the two censuses. With the Government’ s commitment to stabilizing the population of India by 2045 as stated in the National Population Policy (NPP) 2000, it is imperative to have an idea of the likely growth of the population in future. At the same time, various development schemes targeting to improve the quality of life, require information on the number and proportion of person’s in future in different age-groups, their rural-urban distribution etc. Surprisingly, unlike in the past, the need for the projected population is not only being felt by the official agencies alone, even private sector need age-sex wise projected population for better planning of their business.
Population projection is a scientific attempt to peep into the future population scenario, conditioned by making certain assumptions, using data relating to the past available at that point of time. Assumptions used and their probability of adhering in future, forms a critical input in this mathematical effort. Predicting the future course of human fertility and mortality is not easy, especially when looking beyond in time as medical and health intervention strategies, food production and its equitable availability, climatic variability, socio-cultural setting, politico economic conditions and a host of other factors influence population dynamics, making it difficult to predict the growth with certainty. Therefore, caution must be exercised while making or using the population projections in the context of various conditions imposed.
AREA OF INTEREST
What is obvious from this report is that area of interest of my findings are basically on projections of population of states of India upto 2027 based on the census report of 2001 census. Thus finding the trend (growth) that Indian population is expected to follow.
Report is going to give a fruitful analysis of how Government can deal with the problems in population control in coming years. Is it lowering down of sex ratio in coming years or expected increase of population? Thus will help strategize against all the odds possible in coming years. The report helps Government and other multinational companies, to plan out there future projects and developments programs which are directly or indirectly affected by the change in the populations.
Results & Findings
Twenty-one States have been considered and applied the Curve Fitting Method by least squares principles. They are Andhra Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Orissa, Punjab, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Uttaranchal, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal. The projection of the seven north-eastern states (excluding Assam) has also been carried out as a whole. The same has been done for the State of Goa and six Union territories. The data used are 2001 Census and Sample Registration System (SRS).
• The population of India is expected to increase from 1029 million to 1584 million during the period 2001-2026 - an increase of 53.93 percent in twenty- five years at the rate of 2.1 percent annually.
• The sex ratio of the total population (females per 1000 males) is expected to decrease (i.e. become less feminine) from 933 in 2001 to 962 during 2026.
• The State, which is expected to have least growth in the quarter century (2001- 2026) is Tamil Nadu (25 percent), followed by Kerala (26 percent). In contrast, Delhi will have the highest projected growth of 117 percent during 2001-2026. The population in the states of Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh is projected to increase by 40-50 percent during 2001-2026, which is above the national average of 36 percent. The population of Uttar Pradesh is expected to be highest among all the states of the country at almost 274 million in 2026.
• Nearly 50 percent of the projected growth of the Indian population is likely to occur in the seven states of Bihar, Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
• Twenty percent of the total population increase in India during 2001-26 is anticipated to occur in Uttar Pradesh alone.
• In contrast, the contribution of the four southern states namely Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu, to the total increase in population size of the country during 2001-2026 is expected to be eighteen percent of total growth of the country.
• The projected sex ratio is concerned, it is observed that in some of the northern states, the population is expected to be more masculine, that is, the ratio will decrease in 2026.In the southern and eastern states except Kerala, the situation would be reverse. In Kerala, where there are excess females than males in Census 2001, the trend would remain the same in 2026. Tamil Nadu is the other state, where the number of females is expected to be equal to the number of males in 2026
• Lowest sex ratio of 789 is expected to be in Delhi in 2026,
Followed by 839 and 840 in Haryana and Punjab respectively
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