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FUNDAMENTAL ANAYLSIS
CHAPTER 1: FUNDAMENATAL ANALYSIS: INTRODUCTION
1.1: Definition:
“A method of evaluating a security that attempts to measure its intrinsic value by examining related economic, financial and other qualitative and quantitative factors”.
Fundamental analysts attempt to study everything that can affect the security's value, including macroeconomic factors (like the overall economy and industry conditions) and company-specific factors (like financial condition and management).
The end goal of performing fundamental analysis is to produce a value that an investor can compare with the security's current price, with the aim of figuring out what sort of position to take with that security (under priced = buy, overpriced = sell or short).
This method of security analysis is considered to be the opposite of technical analysis.
1.2: Fundamental analysis means:-
Fundamental analysis is about using real data to evaluate a security's value. Although most analysts use fundamental analysis to value stocks, this method of valuation can be used for just about any type of security.
For example, an investor can perform fundamental analysis on a bond's value by looking at economic factors, such as interest rates and the overall state of the economy, and information about the bond issuer, such as potential changes in credit ratings. For assessing stocks, this method uses revenues, earnings, future growth, return on equity, profit margins and other data to determine a company's underlying value and potential for future growth. In terms of stocks, fundamental analysis focuses on the financial statements of the company being evaluated.
Fundamental analysis is the examination of the underlying forces that affect the well being of the economy, industry groups, and companies. As with most analysis, the goal is to derive a forecast and profit from future price movements. At the company level, fundamental analysis may involve examination of financial data, management, business concept and competition. At the industry level, there might be an examination of supply and demand forces for the products offered. For the national economy, fundamental analysis might focus on economic data to assess the present and future growth of the economy. To forecast future stock prices, fundamental analysis combines economic, industry, and company analysis to derive a stock's current fair value and forecast future value. If fair value is not equal to the current stock price, fundamental analysts believe that the stock is either over or under valued and the market price will ultimately gravitate towards fair value. Fundamentalists do not heed the advice of the random walkers and believe that markets are weak-form efficient. By believing that prices do not accurately reflect all available information, fundamental analysts look to capitalize on perceived price discrepancies.
Fundamental analysis involves assessing a corporation's financial history and current standing, including earnings, sales, and management. It also involves gauging the strength of the corporation's products or services in the marketplace.
Fundamental analysis, which is also known as quantitative analysis, involves delving into a company’s financial statements (such as profit and loss account and balance sheet) in order to study various financial indicators (such as revenues, earnings, liabilities, expenses and assets). Such analysis is usually carried out by analysts, brokers and savvy investors.
Fundamental analysis is performed on historical and present data, but with the goal of making financial forecasts. There are several possible objectives:
• to conduct a company stock valuation and predict its probable price evolution,
• to make a projection on its business performance,
• to evaluate its management and make internal business decisions
• to calculate its credit risk.
Therefore, a fundamental analyst uses these details as well as the current state of the economy to assess whether the stock is likely to increase or decrease in value in the short- and long-term and whether the stock's current price is an accurate reflection of its value.