FORECASTING DOMESTIC WATER DEMAND FOR THE NORTHERN MALAYSIA
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ABSTRACT
The objective of this study is to forecast the domestic water needs for the Northern Malaysia until the year 2010. The IWR-MAIN software was used in this study. The Constant Use Rate Model and the Build Forecast Model were explored in this study. The forecast is done based on targets outlined in Kedah Action Plan 2010, which intends to transform the Kedah state to become a developed state by the year 2010. It is assumed that the ‘high performance’ targets outlined in Kedah Action Plan can be achieved by the year 2010. The forecasted daily demand using the first model is 112.983 million gallons per day by the year 2010. The second model forecasts the daily demand to be 1673 million gallons per day by the year 2010. The forecasted daily demand using the second model has significant difference compared to the forecasted demand using the first model.
1 INTRODUCTION
The study was carried out in the state of Kedah situated in the Northern part of Malaysia. The demand for water supply has amplified due to the increase of housing and industrial areas in State of Kedah with the launching of Kedah Action Plan 2010. There are plans for more housing and industrial areas, thus increase the demand for domestic water. An effective water management plan is necessary to avoid any shortage of water supply. In addition, variables such as weather changes should be taken in account because of its huge effect to water management. However, there is a significant amount of money concerned in treating and distributing clean water which is still borne by the government. The state government has the option to either privatise the water supply management or bear the cost itself, with the federal government giving little financial assistance. In 1999, Kedah State Water Supply Division recorded lost amounting USD 1,654.692.30. The objectives of this research is to:
•forecast the domestic water need for Kedah State
•determine the cost of domestic water supply
•determine the trend of domestic water demand
2 2 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
Kedah State Water Supply Division provided information of the whole water management process that was used to determine the main factors for forecasting purposes. Relevant data such as population growth of Kedah State, unemployment rate, household income, land usage and the state’s economic growth was sought from The Secretariat Office of Kedah State. Data from 1990 was collected and analyzed using descriptive analysis. Information regarding the mean, variances and data range is analyzed. In addition, an observation is done to confirm that consumers’ demand are independent to time but dependent to population growth and other factors. Data for water demand and the distribution cost are plotted to get the curve of water demand and distribution cost. Only one model will be used because 92.3% of water supply in Kedah State is for domestic purposes (Development Statistics of Kedah, 2000). IWR-MAIN is used to mo del the water demand and distribution cost up to the year 2010. The curves from IWRMAIN are evaluated to see if there any pattern exists. As it is nearly impossible to get an accurate data, several estimation has been done such as the population, number of houses, income mean, the average of house density over kilometer square and average household size. There is need for population estimation because this research is a shortterm forecast. The estimated number of people for time t, is calculated from equation 1

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