Can Solar Energy Replace Oil?
Hubbert Peaks Forum
Ron Swenson
The Pretenders
IEA, EIA
Shell, BP
Saudi Aramco
Lynch, Adelman
Yergin
Lovins
The Pretenders (closer to home)
“The Commission does not embrace the view that world oil production has peaked —
The National Commission on Energy Policy
The Hubbert Peak
We know it’s coming … but what can we do about it?
A flurry of books on the subject …
Hubbert's Peak
“At the moment, solar and wind power are developing in specialized areas. Neither is an immediate, large-scale solution to the energy problem.”
[b]Kenneth S. Deffeyes
Beyond Oil [/b]
“Solar electrical generation is not yet competitive for large-scale facilities... To my surprise, solar cells to produce 60 watts cost $1,000.”
Kenneth S. Deffeyes
The Party's Over
“Photovoltaic electricity is still expensive.”
Richard Heinberg
The End of Oil
“Solar energy technology 'is still too expensive by a factor of four to compete with nuclear and by a factor of three to compete with natural gas,' says Paul Maycock...
“Solar faces two related obstacles -- prohibitive costs and a [bad] reputation...”
Paul Roberts
Oil Addiction: The World in Peril
“But all of them combined -- sun, wind, and water -- could never produce enough energy to replace the astronomical amounts of fossil fuel the West is accustomed to consuming now.”
Pierre Chomat
Global Solar Energy Balance
Oil, Jihad & Destiny
“Solar power technology, however, is still in the stone age.”
Ronald R. Cooke
The Long Emergency
“Active solar power ... works, though not nearly as well as fossil fuel…
“Alternative energy sources ... are … implausible … without the subsidy of oil. The only remaining alternative is nuclear energy.”
James Howard Kunstler
Over a Barrel
“... The amount of solar energy that falls on a car yields very marginal performance.
“Current technology for solar-generated electricity results in costly power.”
Tom Mast
I think they´re trying to tell us something …
But wait….
The Energy Cost of Energy
The Energy Cost of Energy
Consequence of Delayed Investment
Thermodynamics of Coal
Plus…
Greenhouse gases
Ravaged land
Water contamination
People displaced
Extraction uses oil
Thermodynamics of Oil
It depends …
Pennsylvania?
Saudi Arabia?
Off-shore?
Plus
Ravaged land/oceans
Greenhouse gases
Water contamination
Thermodynamics of Tar Sands
Plus…
Greenhouse gases
Ravaged land
Water contamination
Extraction uses natural gas
Thermodynamics of Nuclear
Plus …
Depletion
Low grade ores → Greenhouse gases to process
Wastes guarded for 10,000+ years
Thermodynamics of Hydrogen
A possible solution for special applications?
Motivations?
Promote nuclear?
Promote natural gas?
Deliberate distraction?
Earnest ignorance?
Thermodynamics of PV
EROI: 5 years
Life: 50 years
Thermodynamics of Thin Film PV
EROI: 6 months
Life: 25 years
Thermodynamics of Wind
EROI: 3 months
Life: 25 years
Thermodynamics vs. Economics
… in the long run …
Thermo-dynamics wins!
Solar Economics: A Brief History
Thomas Edison
“I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”
(1847-1931)


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